I'm trying to use the App Store Connect retention data to validate my own retention data and they do not line up. The opt-in rates, device numbers from the App Store Connect retention table and number of App Store Connect downloads don't make sense. Here is my formula from the retention dashboard: Device number for a date / % opt-in should equal downloads for that date or earlier. However, the result is always larger than my number of downloads. What is the right formula? Here is an example: 10-31 there were 21,327 devices reported on the retention table: https://appstoreconnect.apple.com/analytics/app/d30/<id>/retention?startDate=d%3A20231015. There was an overall opt-in rate of 16%. Total downloads should be 21,327/0.16 = 133,294. However, the reported number of first time downloads is 70,384: https://appstoreconnect.apple.com/analytics/app/d30/<id>/metrics?annotationsVisible=true&chartType=singleaxis&measureKey=units&zoomType=day. If I consider downloads from before that date it is 77,764. What explains this discrepancy? This occurs for every date, not just this one. The number of downloads reported on App Store Connect is always lower than I can calculate based on the opt in rate. What am I doing wrong?
